立即体验注册

定制化订阅，助您时刻掌握学术前沿

立即体验注册/登录

经济学

american-economic-review

当期

待刊

american-economic-review

American Economic Review 2025年第115卷第10期

Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium

市场均衡中的处理效应

by Evan Munro, Xu Kuang, Stefan Wager

Abstract: This paper studies how to evaluate treatment effects in market settings, accounting for both direct benefits and equilibrium spillovers. The authors show identification and estimation of policy-relevant treatment effects using unit-randomized trials within a single large market: a Bernoulli-randomized design consistently estimates direct effects and heterogeneity for welfare-improving targeting, while estimating spillovers and confidence intervals additionally requires price-elasticity estimates from an augmented experimental design. The method is illustrated with simulations calibrated to conditional cash-transfer research in the Philippines.

Keywords: Treatment Effects, Market Equilibrium, Randomized Experiment, Spillovers

内容概述: 研究在市场环境下如何评估政策的处理效应:既要看直接收益,也要看市场均衡变化带来的溢出效应。作者以单一大市场内的个体随机试验实现对政策相关处理效应的识别与估计,并用菲律宾有条件现金转移项目的模拟加以演示。

关键词: 处理效应, 市场均衡, 随机试验, 一般均衡

JEL: C21, C51, I32, I38, O15

Consistent Evidence on Duration Dependence of Price Changes

价格变动久期依赖的一致性证据

by Fernando Alvarez, Katarína Borovičková, Robert Shimer

Abstract: The authors develop a linear GMM estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard model that allows for an arbitrary distribution of unobserved heterogeneity and accommodates competing risks, observable characteristics, and censoring. The estimator is proven consistent; applied to the duration of price spells, it reveals substantial unobserved heterogeneity, with important implications for the response to monetary policy shocks in time-dependent pricing models and for the degree of state dependence in price-plan models.

Keywords: Duration Dependence, Price Stickiness, Mixed Proportional Hazard, GMM

内容概述: 作者为离散时间的混合比例风险模型构造了一个线性 GMM 估计量,允许任意的不可观测异质性分布,并可处理竞争风险、可观测特征与删失。将其应用于价格持续期,结果显示存在显著的不可观测异质性,对理解货币政策冲击下时间依赖定价模型的反应具有重要含义。

关键词: 久期依赖, 价格粘性, 混合比例风险模型, GMM

JEL: C24, C41, E23, E31, E52, L11